Fundamentals still....
Today's unemployment number showed me the current US economic fundamentals. Still the way to go... Most people don't realize this weak fundamentals, which is good because we don't worry about our lives. However, the one reality is there.
The US equity market seems to be still upside limited market. However, the some technical analysis and chartists might buy some during the next week based on the some key technical level, which is, of course, DOW $8,000. If the market take this line, then temporarily DOW might reach $8,450 which is at most upside for next week. USDJPY is far away from the mean level (this mean level is my own concept and feelings, so it is totally discretionary.). However, the markets by the very short-term speculative money tend to buy USD. So, for the next week, USDJPY might reach \101.30 (at most high) or \98.60 for downside.
The US equity market seems to be still upside limited market. However, the some technical analysis and chartists might buy some during the next week based on the some key technical level, which is, of course, DOW $8,000. If the market take this line, then temporarily DOW might reach $8,450 which is at most upside for next week. USDJPY is far away from the mean level (this mean level is my own concept and feelings, so it is totally discretionary.). However, the markets by the very short-term speculative money tend to buy USD. So, for the next week, USDJPY might reach \101.30 (at most high) or \98.60 for downside.
Yes, my view was perfect. But tomorrow will be...
Both DOW (at most $7,950) and USD/JPY 98.70 were perfect view that I mentioned on this Monday. So.... The next, tomorrow Friday, if we keep up this level, then for next week, I feel basically strong market. But If we cannot keep this level by the end of tomorrow, then for a next week, I feel the market weakness. Either scenarios, tomorrow is the important day for me to watch.
Again, the market seems to perceive that both Bernanke's and Geithner's cheering-up talks cannot be taken as a sustainable ones. Rather, it seems like tinkering chores that won't last for a long. I hope not since I am living in this world. The market-oriented ecnomy sometimes goes too much which some of the neo-Kaynesians might say that this is the reasons that we need to interrvene and fix them all. In the movie, "the Wall Street", one person (we know who it is!) said, "Greed is good.. A greed works. It is the essence of life, love...." But we need not to forget about "There is also a fear. A fear that the market corrects. A fear that the real life has."
Again, the market seems to perceive that both Bernanke's and Geithner's cheering-up talks cannot be taken as a sustainable ones. Rather, it seems like tinkering chores that won't last for a long. I hope not since I am living in this world. The market-oriented ecnomy sometimes goes too much which some of the neo-Kaynesians might say that this is the reasons that we need to interrvene and fix them all. In the movie, "the Wall Street", one person (we know who it is!) said, "Greed is good.. A greed works. It is the essence of life, love...." But we need not to forget about "There is also a fear. A fear that the market corrects. A fear that the real life has."
Still strong sentiment for a short time
Yes, like today's stong Monday, this week might end up in the strong market. Up side for DOW $7,950 at most. Then, the following week might be an another challenging week for any investors (not for traders).
From last Friday, I saw the market overshooting in the forex market, beaten down USD too much, thererfore, I went long USDJPY and closed this USD long today, making some profit. I took enough and closed all. Still my view for USD as negative as before. USD upside as 98.70Yen, not higher.
My view again about US debt that the all Americans have to take care of, my sincere opinions to solve this situation is to reduce consumer spendings as temporarily reducing GDP, however, if I consider the US inflation risk in the future by making huge deficits. This view goes against the positive effets on the export side of countries such as China, Japan, etc... It is very complicated issues.
From last Friday, I saw the market overshooting in the forex market, beaten down USD too much, thererfore, I went long USDJPY and closed this USD long today, making some profit. I took enough and closed all. Still my view for USD as negative as before. USD upside as 98.70Yen, not higher.
My view again about US debt that the all Americans have to take care of, my sincere opinions to solve this situation is to reduce consumer spendings as temporarily reducing GDP, however, if I consider the US inflation risk in the future by making huge deficits. This view goes against the positive effets on the export side of countries such as China, Japan, etc... It is very complicated issues.
Quantatative ease
Well, this week was very dynamic in the market. First of all, FOMC policy clearly insited to promote aggressive monetary quantatative ease. Because they want to see the interest rate level low with huge quantity of money. Some would say that we need to consider the dark side of this effect. Monetalist view point, MV=PT ! ! With huge money supply, then the proposition of the inflation fear depends on money velocity (=V). Higher the velocity, the more likely we have an inflation. However, FOMC might want to say that the actual velocity of money is not so high right now. That is why they can provide more money supply, mainly M2 ! (not only M1). Let's see these how it will turn out.
These Fed policy announcement immediately affected the lower interest rate in the market whereby depreciating US$! My view of US$ is the same one as the market perceived this week. It will stay weaker for a while. ECU, BOJ, and other central banks would like to ease their monetary policy as well. So in the way, it seems to balance out.
Equity index for a while will see some firm lower lines, however, we doubt the equity will keep going up.
These Fed policy announcement immediately affected the lower interest rate in the market whereby depreciating US$! My view of US$ is the same one as the market perceived this week. It will stay weaker for a while. ECU, BOJ, and other central banks would like to ease their monetary policy as well. So in the way, it seems to balance out.
Equity index for a while will see some firm lower lines, however, we doubt the equity will keep going up.
Not a little push-up
Yesterday I said we might see the DOW be a little push-up around $7,000. But today, yes we had it but it was not a little. It is more than I expected. However, today is the key day if we can sustain this $7,000 or not. I will monitor the market tomorrow. It might be an interesting day. In order DOW to go higher, we should see DOW to be more than $7,000 by this Friday though.
Citi Bank situations and Bernanke comments affected today's market.
Citi Bank situations and Bernanke comments affected today's market.
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